VENEGAS ARAVENA, PATRICIO ALEJANDRO
No
Ann. Geophys.
Article
Científica
01/01/2025
001655207100003
Conventional earthquake simulations, employing computationally efficient but simplified homogeneous parameters, often yield unrealistic runaway ruptures and inaccurate ground motion predictions. Conversely, dynamic rupture simulations and large earthquakes reveal a strong correlation between accumulated energy and final rupture distribution, demonstrating that energy constraints significantly reduce seismic source uncertainties. Therefore, realistic rupture analyses should prioritize energy-constrained, heterogeneous models over probabilistic methods for seismic hazards analysis. This necessitates simulations incorporating fault heterogeneities and geometries, as demonstrated by the Heterogeneous Energy-Based kinematic method. This recent perspective is particularly relevant for faults near urban areas such as the San Ram & oacute;n fault which is located near the city of Santiago (Chile) and potentially impacting 6.5 million people. When considering ground motion amplifications, it is obtained a ground motion greater than expected for a magnitude 6.5 event, suggesting that the city could experience peak ground acceleration (PGA) values greater than 0.6 g at 10 km from the fault. The city would face maximum accelerations close to 0.9 g. PGA values close to critical structures, such as the 'La Reina' nuclear reactor, hospitals and the country's government center, show accelerations higher than those recorded by the Fukushima-Daiichi reactor during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.
Self-arrested rupture simulation; Ground motion amplification; Peak ground acceleration (PGA); San Ramon Fault; Heterogeneous rupture parameters