SÁNCHEZ CARRASCO, ALFONSO, Rylance, Guillermo
No
Rev. UNISCI
Article
Científica
0.106
01/05/2018
000491242700004
2-s2.0-85064678998
Water stress presents a wide range of concerns that can jeopardize\n international security. Neo-Malthusians scholars constantly warn of\n water conflicts, while institutionalists argue that possible water\n conflicts are the result of poor water distribution and can therefore be\n prevented by stronger institutions. Prima facie evidence of\n water-related social unrest suggests that both arguments are\n interrelated, not separate. We evaluate this argument statistically, by\n drawing on a sample of five North African countries for the 2000-2015\n period. Our analysis finds robust evidence in support of institutional\n arguments. We also find evidence of an interaction effect between\n climatic variables and poor institutional water access on social unrest:\n positive temperature anomalies decrease the likelihood of unrest, while\n negative rainfall anomalies increase it.
Climate change; water scarcity; institutions; conflict; North Africa