Título Estimating agrarian income evolution in horticultural farms
Publicación externa No
Medio Acta Hortic.
Alcance Conference Paper
Naturaleza Científica
Cuartil SJR 3
Impacto SJR 0.27100
Ámbito Internacional
Web https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84855366314&doi=10.17660%2fActaHortic.2008.802.59&partnerID=40&md5=12899ce451940badaacc2b0eddeebad4
Fecha de publicacion 01/01/2008
ISI 000305212500059
Scopus Id 2-s2.0-84855366314
DOI 10.17660/ActaHortic.2008.802.59
Abstract This paper describes a hybrid method to simulate the evolution of agrarian income (estimated by farm net margin) on a medium-long term basis. The model integrates Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) and a multi-level fuzzy inference engine. MCS is a well-known forecasting method but ignores the existence of real dependence relationships among covariates. When dependence relationships cannot be algebraically formulated but can be described as rules using expert knowledge, a fuzzy inference engine can interpret them guiding the MCS model. The financial structure of horticultural farms (agrarian year 2000, surveyed in 2003:348 farms) in Andalusia (southern region in Spain) was used to verify the hybrid model. Farm net margin was forecasted from 2001 to 2013 and the results were evaluated using a cross-validation procedure. Future environmental and market impacts can also be evaluated and this makes our model an interesting proposal as a complementary tool for decision making in the context of agricultural policy.
Palabras clave Agrarian income; Fuzzy inference; Horticultural farms; Monte Carlo simulation
Miembros de la Universidad Loyola

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