Título Predicting the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking in primary care: development and validation of a simple risk algorithm
Autores Angel Bellon, Juan , de Dios Luna, Juan , King, Michael , Nazareth, Irwin , MOTRICO MARTINEZ, EMMA, Josefa GildeGomez-Barragan, Mara , Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco , Monton-Franco, Carmen , Sanchez-Celaya, Marta , Angel Diaz-Barreiros, Miguel , Vicens, Catalina , Moreno-Peral, Patricia
Publicación externa No
Medio The British journal of general practice : the journal of the Royal College of General Practitioners
Alcance Article
Naturaleza Científica
Cuartil JCR 1
Cuartil SJR 1
Impacto JCR 3.26100
Impacto SJR 0.90600
Web https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85017021127&doi=10.3399%2fbjgp17X690245&partnerID=40&md5=1046a275e898ef13d379ac2baee2d090
Fecha de publicacion 01/04/2017
ISI 000398892600008
Scopus Id 2-s2.0-85017021127
DOI 10.3399/bjgp17X690245
Abstract Background\n Little is known about the risk of progressing to hazardous alcohol use in abstinent or low-risk drinkers.\n Aim\n To develop and validate a simple brief risk algorithm for the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking (HAD) over 12 months for use in primary care. Design and setting Prospective cohort study in 32 health centres from six Spanish provinces, with evaluations at baseline, 6 months, and 12 months.\n Method\n Forty-one risk factors were measured and multilevel logistic regression and inverse probability weighting were used to build the risk algorithm. The outcome was new occurrence of HAD during the study, as measured by the AUDIT.\n Results\n From the lists of 174 GPs, 3954 adult abstinent or low-risk drinkers were recruited. The \'predictAL-10\' risk algorithm included just nine variables (10 questions): province, sex, age, cigarette consumption, perception of financial strain, having ever received treatment for an alcohol problem, childhood sexual abuse, AUDIT-C, and interaction AUDIT-C* Age. The c-index was 0.886 (95% CI = 0.854 to 0.918). The optimal cutoff had a sensitivity of 0.83 and specificity of 0.80. Excluding childhood sexual abuse from the model (the \'predictAL-9\'), the c-index was 0.880 (95% CI = 0.847 to 0.913), sensitivity 0.79, and specificity 0.81. There was no statistically significant difference between the c-indexes of predictAL-10 and predictAL-9.\n Conclusion\n The predictAL-10/9 is a simple and internally valid risk algorithm to predict the onset of hazardous alcohol drinking over 12 months in primary care attendees; it is a brief tool that is potentially useful for primary prevention of hazardous alcohol drinking.
Palabras clave alcohol consumption; clinical prediction rule; primary health care
Miembros de la Universidad Loyola

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