Title A macro-economic model to forecast remittances based on Monte-Carlo simulation and artificial intelligence
Authors GARCÍA ALONSO, CARLOS, Arenas-Arroyo E., PÉREZ ALCALÁ, GABRIEL MARÍA, GARCÍA ALONSO, CARLOS, PÉREZ ALCALÁ, GABRIEL MARÍA
External publication No
Means Expert Sys Appl
Scope Article
Nature Científica
JCR Quartile 1
SJR Quartile 1
JCR Impact 1.85400
SJR Impact 1.14800
Area International
Web https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84858338623&doi=10.1016%2fj.eswa.2012.01.108&partnerID=40&md5=530db0e26860231d6a6849593d31ab25
Publication date 01/01/2012
ISI 000303281600035
Scopus Id 2-s2.0-84858338623
DOI 10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.108
Abstract A computer system based on Monte-Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic has been designed, developed and tested to: (i) identify covariates that influence remittances received in a specific country and (ii) explain their behavior throughout the time span involved. The resulting remittance model was designed theoretically, identifying the variables which determined remittances and their dependence relationships, and then developed into a computer cluster. This model aims to be global and is useful for assessing the long term evolution of remittances in scenarios where a rich country is the host (United States of America) while a poor country is the where the migrant is from (El Salvador). By changing the socio-economic characteristics of the countries involved, experts can analyze new socio-economic frameworks to obtain useful conclusions for decision-making processes involving development and sustainability. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords Computer clusters; Covariates; Decision making process; El Salvador; Macro-economic models; Monte Carlo simulation; Remittances; Socio-economics; Time span; United States of America; Bayesian networks
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