| Title |
A macro-economic model to forecast remittances based on Monte-Carlo simulation and artificial intelligence |
| Authors |
GARCÍA ALONSO, CARLOS, Arenas-Arroyo E. , PÉREZ ALCALÁ, GABRIEL MARÍA |
| External publication |
No |
| Means |
Expert Syst. Appl. |
| Scope |
Article |
| Nature |
Científica |
| JCR Quartile |
1 |
| SJR Quartile |
1 |
| JCR Impact |
1.85400 |
| SJR Impact |
1.14800 |
| Web |
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84858338623&doi=10.1016%2fj.eswa.2012.01.108&partnerID=40&md5=530db0e26860231d6a6849593d31ab25 |
| Publication date |
01/01/2012 |
| ISI |
000303281600035 |
| Scopus Id |
2-s2.0-84858338623 |
| DOI |
10.1016/j.eswa.2012.01.108 |
| Abstract |
A computer system based on Monte-Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic has been designed, developed and tested to: (i) identify covariates that influence remittances received in a specific country and (ii) explain their behavior throughout the time span involved. The resulting remittance model was designed theoretically, identifying the variables which determined remittances and their dependence relationships, and then developed into a computer cluster. This model aims to be global and is useful for assessing the long term evolution of remittances in scenarios where a rich country is the host (United States of America) while a poor country is the where the migrant is from (El Salvador). By changing the socio-economic characteristics of the countries involved, experts can analyze new socio-economic frameworks to obtain useful conclusions for decision-making processes involving development and sustainability. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
| Keywords |
Computer clusters; Covariates; Decision making process; El Salvador; Macro-economic models; Monte Carlo simulation; Remittances; Socio-economics; Time span; United States of America; Bayesian networks |
| Universidad Loyola members |
|
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