Title An integrated assessment model for food security under climate change for South Asia
Authors ROSON, ROBERTO, Sartori, Martina , Alvi, Shazad , Jamil, Faisal
External publication No
Means Heliyon
Scope Article
Nature Científica
JCR Quartile 2
SJR Quartile 1
JCR Impact 3.776
SJR Impact 0.55
Web https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85103736242&doi=10.1016%2fj.heliyon.2021.e06707&partnerID=40&md5=7198043c321e0f935b7776912223c5dd
Publication date 01/04/2021
ISI 000647558500024
Scopus Id 2-s2.0-85103736242
DOI 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06707
Abstract The present study develops an integrated assessment model (IAM) for food security under climate change for South Asia. For IAM, initially, an econometric model is estimated that identifies the impact of climate change on crop yields, using the historical relationships between temperature, precipitation, and the production of cereals. Subsequently, future projections have been collected for temperature and precipitation from climate models of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the previous econometric model is applied to obtain the implied future cereal yields changes. Then, the yield variations are fed into a multiregional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, calibrated to the GTAP 9 database, taking the form of decreases in factor-augmenting productivity of the grains sector. Further, the present study evaluates the effects of climate change on an individual South Asian country. The results indicate that change in climate decreases food production, increases food prices, decreases food consumption, and thus affects the welfare. Trade and fiscal policy responses are investigated to combat the problem of food security. It is revealed that these two policies fail to compensate climate change damage in all the selected South Asian countries.
Keywords Crop yields; Global trade analysis project; Food production; Food prices; Food consumption; Welfare
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