| Abstract |
The current agrarian sector in developed countries like those in the European Union (EU) is facing a risky but fascinating situation. On one hand, a subsidy-based structure (mainly cereals, oil crops, protein crops and livestock) has to be substituted and, on the other, a competitive and sustainable environment has to be created aiming at high quality products, territory maintenance and stable income sources. Everything must be integrated in a free but fair world trade framework. This uncertain environment could modify the structure of our agrarian sector in the near future. Some farm types (agrarian profiles, AP) could disappear trying to reach a new financial -competitive- and structural -modernization-equilibrium. Also, some of these last AP should be maintained, basically using income transfers from public administrations -subsidies, in order to stabilize the territory structure of some regions (population, soil, landscape,...). To study the socio-economic structure, the medium/long-term financial situation -sustainability- and the productive (financial and social) efficiency of selected AP, this paper proposes an integrated chain of methodologies and offers some preliminary examples of empirical results. The main objective of our global research work is to test the method sequence up using real socio-economic data. This sequence integrates medium/long-term financial analysis based on Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) with a standard efficiency analysis that includes Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) with imprecise data. According to this objective, some methodological and computational advances in MCS and DEA are also considered and tested. In this paper the general and theoretical schema of the model is presented. © ISHS 2005. |
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