Title Assessing inequality and poverty in long-term growth projections: A general equilibrium analysis for six developing countries
Authors Britz W. , Jafari Y. , NEKHAY, OLEXANDR, ROSON, ROBERTO
External publication No
Means Econ. Model.
Scope Article
Nature Científica
JCR Quartile 1
SJR Quartile 1
JCR Impact 4.7
SJR Impact 1.303
Web https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85139867746&doi=10.1016%2fj.econmod.2022.106066&partnerID=40&md5=d1beab06f34fb74cdba25242decbd0eb
Publication date 01/12/2022
ISI 000882923300003
Scopus Id 2-s2.0-85139867746
DOI 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.106066
Abstract Most projections of long-term economic development, such as the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios in climate change research, do not quantify future effects on income distribution and poverty. To address this research gap, we present some numerical simulations based on a recursive-dynamic general equilibrium model with household details, focusing on relative and absolute poverty in six developing countries: Albania, Bolivia, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nicaragua, and Vietnam. The results under the SSP2 reference scenario suggest that the exogenously projected gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth, combined with long-term structural change, produce lower absolute but higher relative poverty. An alternative scenario of stronger trade integration further amplifies the impact on income inequality. Indeed, more international trade tends to increase capital income, which mainly benefits rich households, but generally decreases agricultural earnings, which are important for rural poor households. © 2022 Elsevier B.V.
Keywords Economic growth; Income distribution; Poverty; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Trade
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