Title Income prediction in the agrarian sector using product unit neural networks
Authors GARCÍA ALONSO, CARLOS, TORRES JIMÉNEZ, MERCEDES, Hervás-Martínez C., GARCÍA ALONSO, CARLOS, TORRES JIMÉNEZ, MERCEDES
External publication No
Means Eur. J. Oper. Res.
Scope Article
Nature Científica
JCR Quartile 1
SJR Quartile 1
SJR Impact 2.38300
Area International
Web https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-71649104908&doi=10.1016%2fj.ejor.2009.09.033&partnerID=40&md5=c24c92da74922bdc6622e0347d9a78b3
Publication date 01/01/2010
ISI 000274094100019
Scopus Id 2-s2.0-71649104908
DOI 10.1016/j.ejor.2009.09.033
Abstract European Union financial subsidies in the agrarian sector are directly related to maintaining a sustainable farm income, so its determination using, for example, the farm gross margin is a basic element in agrarian programs for sustainable development. Using this tool, it is possible the identification of the agrarian structures that need financial support and to what extent it is needed. However, the process of farm gross margin determination is complicated and expensive because it is necessary to find the value of all the inputs consumed and outputs produced. Considering the circumstances mentioned, the objectives of this research were to: (1) select a representative and reduced set of easy-to-collect descriptive variables to estimate the gross margin of a group of olive-tree farms in Andalusia; (2) investigate if artificial neural network models (ANN) with two different types of basis functions (sigmoidal and product-units) could effectively predict the gross margin of olive-tree farms; (3) compare the effectiveness of multiple linear, quadratic and robust regression models versus ANN; and (4) validate the best mathematical model obtained for gross margin prediction by analysing realistic farm and farmer scenarios. Results from ANN models, specially the product-unit ones, have provided the most accurate gross margin predictions. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords Andalusia; Artificial neural network models; Basic elements; Basis functions; European Union; Financial subsidies; Financial support; Gross margin; OR in agriculture; Product unit neural network; Prod
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