| Title |
Large scale knowledge-based simulation models: An aproximation to the northsouth remittances model |
| Authors |
GARCÍA ALONSO, CARLOS, Arenas-Arroyo E. , PÉREZ ALCALÁ, GABRIEL MARÍA |
| External publication |
No |
| Means |
Proc. Winter Simul. Conf. |
| Scope |
Conference Paper |
| Nature |
Científica |
| SJR Impact |
0.33900 |
| Web |
https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-77951569267&doi=10.1109%2fWSC.2009.5429216&partnerID=40&md5=a15c9852ba2f351df9b9386ff76a8c99 |
| Publication date |
01/01/2009 |
| Scopus Id |
2-s2.0-77951569267 |
| DOI |
10.1109/WSC.2009.5429216 |
| Abstract |
This paper studies the evolution throughout the time span of those covariates that remittances depend on. Not only economical variables but also demographic, social and political ones have been taken into account in a Monte-Carlo-based simulation model. Expert knowledge was incorporated modeling fuzzy dependence relationships (DR) between covariates based on standard macroeconomic models. An improved procedure to make fuzzy rules explicit and to evaluate them automatically was designed and tested in a multilevel fuzzy inference engine. Primary covariates (inputs in a dependence relationship) were defined by standard statistical distributions (uniform). The multilevel fuzzy inference engine evaluated DR outputs, following a hierarchical structure once the input values were known. Using this methodology, a North-South remittances model was designed and evaluated. Results showed that intermediate DR outputs matched the expert-based expectations reasonably as did the remittances. ©2009 IEEE. |
| Keywords |
Covariates; Expert knowledge; Hierarchical structures; Input values; Knowledge-based simulation; Macro-economic models; MONTE CARLO; Simulation model; Statistical distribution; Time span; Knowledge ba |
| Universidad Loyola members |
|
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