Title Validating Policy-Induced Economic Change Using Sequential General Equilibrium SAMs
Authors CARDENETE FLORES, MANUEL ALEJANDRO, Carmen Lima, M., Sancho, Ferran, CARDENETE FLORES, MANUEL ALEJANDRO
External publication No
Means J Forecast
Scope Article
Nature Científica
JCR Quartile 3
SJR Quartile 1
JCR Impact 0.93400
SJR Impact 0.79200
Area International
Web https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85014542947&doi=10.1002%2ffor.2424&partnerID=40&md5=f17c65e95c10744e871f26e92bbf687a
Publication date 01/04/2017
ISI 000395590700006
Scopus Id 2-s2.0-85014542947
DOI 10.1002/for.2424
Abstract We present a novel sequential approach that explores the capacity of Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models to track down policy-induced economic changes and their ability to generate contrastable data. We use an empirical Social accounting matrix (SAM) of the region of Andalusia, in the south of Spain, to construct an initial CGE model. This model is then perturbed with a set of policy shocks related to EU Structural Funds invested into Andalusia. These shocks are accompanied by some parameter adjustments that pick up the main external changes not explained by the model. We generate a sequence of model-produced virtual SAMs. We then compare the last virtual SAM in the sequence with a new available empirical SAM. This allows us to check relatedness, for the same year, between the model produced and the empirical SAMs. The results show a good fit to the empirical data, providing further support to the CGE modelling tool. Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Keywords Social accounting matrices; applied general equilibrium; impact analysis; European regional policy
Universidad Loyola members