Title WHEN THE TAPS RUN DRY: WATER STRESS AND SOCIAL UNREST REVISITED
Authors SÁNCHEZ CARRASCO, ALFONSO, Rylance, Guillermo, SÁNCHEZ CARRASCO, ALFONSO
External publication No
Means Rev. UNISCI
Scope Article
Nature Científica
SJR Quartile 4
SJR Impact 0.10600
Area International
Publication date 01/05/2018
ISI 000491242700004
DOI 10.31439/UNISCI-3
Abstract Water stress presents a wide range of concerns that can jeopardize international security. Neo-Malthusians scholars constantly warn of water conflicts, while institutionalists argue that possible water conflicts are the result of poor water distribution and can therefore be prevented by stronger institutions. Prima facie evidence of water-related social unrest suggests that both arguments are interrelated, not separate. We evaluate this argument statistically, by drawing on a sample of five North African countries for the 2000-2015 period. Our analysis finds robust evidence in support of institutional arguments. We also find evidence of an interaction effect between climatic variables and poor institutional water access on social unrest: positive temperature anomalies decrease the likelihood of unrest, while negative rainfall anomalies increase it.
Keywords Climate change; water scarcity; institutions; conflict; North Africa
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