Title Remittance flows estimation hybridizing a multilevel fuzzy system and a simulation model
Authors CAMPOY MUÑOZ, MARÍA DEL PILAR, SALAZAR ORDÓÑEZ, MELANIA, GARCÍA ALONSO, CARLOS
External publication No
Means Proceedings - 2012 9th International Conference On Fuzzy Systems And Knowledge Discovery, Fskd 2012
Scope Proceedings Paper
Nature Científica
Web https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84872936756&doi=10.1109%2fFSKD.2012.6233803&partnerID=40&md5=de5d65cd4fe633fc93f890b2949dff9e
Publication date 01/01/2012
Scopus Id 2-s2.0-84872936756
DOI 10.1109/FSKD.2012.6233803
Abstract This paper estimates the remittances recorded in Ecuador throughout the time span 2000-2010, when they were the second source of foreign currency of the Andean country. The relationships between covariates, which have effects on these financial flows, are modeled by fuzzy dependence relationships (DR) instead of algebra-based relationships due to the absence or bad quality of data available. A procedure to male fuzzy rules explicit and to evaluate them automatically was designed and tested in a multilevel fuzzy inference engine, which is integrated in a Monte-Carlo simulation model. Firstly, the primary covariates (inputs in a DR) are determined by the simulation model according to expert-based selection of its statistical distributions. Thus, the inference engine evaluated DR outputs once the input values were known, following a hierarchical structure. The results show that this methodology allows us to include expert knowledge in a simulation model. © 2012 IEEE.
Keywords Bad quality; Covariates; Ecuador; Expert knowledge; Financial flows; Foreign currency; Hierarchical structures; Input values; Monte Carlo Simulation; Remittances; Simulation model; Statistical distribution; Time span; Fuzzy systems; Intelligent systems; Computer simulation
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